Federal Reserve officials have said recently they expect GDP growth in 2011 could be as high as 4%. A poll conducted by Dr. John Paglia, and released today, shows small companies (less than $5 million in revenue) believe the overall U.S. economy will continue to be sluggish, posting 1.87% GDP growth over the next twelve months. Larger companies ($100+ million in annual revenue) have a slightly rosier picture forecasting a 2.14% increase to GDP in 2011. Dr. Paglia polled 1,224 privately-held businesses, capital suppliers, intermediaries, and service providers.
The findings are available at http://bit.ly/privatecapeconpoll
1. GDP seen at 1.98% with probability of recession at 28.43%.
2. Housing expected to decline 1.76% while S&P seen increasing by 6.46%.
3. ‘Increased access to capital’ seen as policy that would help spur job creation the most
4. Most participants ‘somewhat more confident’ in U.S. economic growth in 2011
5. Likewise, most participants ‘somewhat more confident’ in growth prospects of privately held businesses
6. Most participants more incentivized to innovate today
7. 80% of business owners feel economic stimulus measures distributed unfairly
8. Business owners believe a stronger dollar would be more beneficial than weaker dollar
9. Compared to one year ago, respondents more likely to invest in US, Brazil, India, Canada, Australia, and China. Less likely to invest or expand in Japan, EU, Mexico, and Russia.
10. Most respondents believe raising the $14.3 trillion US debt ceiling would be detrimental to US businesses